Top US Stocks to Watch for the Week of September 29, 2025

Markets are funny. One week, investors celebrate “record highs.” Next, the same indices slip a fraction, and everyone suddenly remembers that recessions exist. As September comes to a close, that’s where we are: stocks pausing after a long run, investors eyeing the Fed, and everyone pretending they enjoy waiting for payrolls data on a Friday morning.

The Setup: September’s Last Week

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just notched small weekly losses. Not a crash, not a rally - more like the markets taking a breath. Inflation numbers came in exactly as expected, which somehow managed to disappoint everyone.

The more interesting story is underneath the surface: leadership has broadened. It’s no longer just Nvidia and Microsoft carrying the market. Small-caps and value stocks actually outpaced large-cap growth in August. That’s unusual in the past few years, when “owning tech” was basically the only strategy you needed.

Valuations reflect that split: small-caps still trade at a 15% discount, value stocks at 3% below fair value, while growth stocks keep their usual 8% premium. Translation: Wall Street is cautiously rotating, but still loves expensive tech too much to quit.

The Week Ahead: Data and Drama

The big ticket is Friday’s September jobs report. Economists expect 45,000 new jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and wages up 0.3%. That’s not a recession, but it’s not boom times either. Call it the Goldilocks nobody actually likes.

Other key data points include consumer confidence on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, and Tesla’s quarterly delivery numbers on Thursday. Sprinkle in Fed speeches and a looming government shutdown deadline, and you’ve got a recipe for market noise.

Corporate Soap Opera: Earnings on Deck

This isn’t peak earnings season, but a few names could still move the needle:

• Carnival $CCL ( ▼ 1.9% ) : Reports Monday. Cruise ships are full again, but investors want proof that debt from the pandemic era isn’t still an anchor.

• Nike $NKE ( ▲ 6.41% ) : Tuesday. Will people continue to buy trainers when student loan repayments begin?

• Paychex $PAYX ( ▼ 2.17% ) : Also on Tuesday. Payroll data in earnings clothing.

• Conagra $CAG ( ▲ 5.41% ) and Cal-Maine $CALM ( ▼ 1.21% ) : Wednesday. Staples are boring until they’re not — think eggs, packaged foods, margins.

• Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.31% ) : Thursday deliveries. The number will be compared not just to last quarter, but to an industry narrative that EV demand is slowing.

What’s Hot, What’s Not

• Industrials and financials: quietly hitting all-time highs. Boring, but in a good way.

• Utilities: rallied hard, though arguably too far. Investors chasing “safety” sometimes forget utilities can be overpriced, too.

• Tech: still the centre of attention, with Nvidia as the unofficial mascot of 2025.

• Healthcare: lagging most of the year, but the weight-loss drug boom has created its own mini-sector inside the sector.

• Real estate and communications: trading at discounts, which is Wall Street’s way of saying “we hate these right now, but maybe not forever.”

Stocks Worth Watching

• Carnival $CCL ( ▼ 1.9% ) : Occupancy rates near records, debt still heavy.

• Nike $NKE ( ▲ 6.41% ) : Consumer demand vs. competition squeeze.

• Tesla: The EV bellwether, every delivery update feels like a referendum on the entire industry.

• Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 8.18% ) : Weight-loss drugs are one of the few true growth stories in healthcare.

• Nvidia: AI demand remains insatiable, with institutional investors remaining glued to it.

• Ralph Lauren $RL ( ▲ 1.23% ) : Luxury spending is holding up better than expected.

• Blue Bird $BLBD ( ▼ 3.55% ) : The “electric school bus” story that’s not quite mainstream, but quietly growing.

• Tutor Perini $TPC ( ▼ 2.81% ) : Construction firm with infrastructure tailwinds, not glamorous, but profitable.

Risks & Catalysts

The script is straightforward:

• Catalysts: Strong earnings from Nike or Carnival, stable yields, and a not-terrible jobs report.

• Risks: A weak jobs print, rising Treasury yields, or a last-minute government shutdown.

Markets are betting that the Fed will cut rates twice more this year, with October almost a certainty. If the data lines up, equities are likely to drift higher. If not, traders may suddenly remember that valuations are still expensive.

The Bottom Line

This week is less about blowout numbers and more about direction. The question isn’t “is the economy fine?” (it mostly is), but “does the data line up with the Fed’s soft-landing story?”

Stocks like Tesla, Nike, and Carnival have obvious catalysts. Small-cap and value stocks appear to be cheaper than they have been in years. And tech, as usual, refuses to let go of the spotlight.

Investing, like cruising or buying expensive trainers, is about expectations. This week, expectations are modest, which might be precisely what keeps the rally alive.

Disclaimer: This publication is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. It does not take into account your individual circumstances or objectives. Nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Capital is at risk.