Top US Stocks to Watch: Dec 22–26, 2025 Holiday Week

In late December, the stock market usually works in one of two ways.

The first way is called “price discovery.” This is when millions of people help decide what something is worth.

The second happens when many traders are away for the holidays, so even small news can cause big price swings.

Between December 22 and December 26, the market is usually in this second mode.

This is not because the economy changes overnight. It happens because there is less trading, the schedule is tight, and normal price moves can seem dramatic. During these weeks, markets are no longer more important; they seem noisier.

So, instead of making your watchlist bigger, focus on a smaller, more targeted list. Pick fewer stocks, look for clear reasons to trade, and try to tell what really matters from what is just normal December activity.

This week, the trading schedule is the main story.

Trading hours matter a lot this week.

• Mon, Dec 22: Open

• Tue, Dec 23: Open

• Wed, Dec 24: Early close at 1:00 p.m. ET

• Thu, Dec 25: Closed for Christmas

• Fri, Dec 26: Open for a full session

Bond markets usually follow the same holiday schedule and also close early on December 24. This matters because interest rates still affect stock prices, especially for companies with long-term earnings.

During holiday weeks, three patterns often show up:

1. Air pockets. Thin order books mean prices can move more on less.

2. Year-end clean-up. Positions get “polished” for reporting, sometimes in very boring ways that look exciting on a chart.

3. Factors move disguised as narratives. Mega-caps, cyclicals, and defensives can swing because of flows, not because anyone woke up with a fresh view of capitalism.

This week, the main risks come from economic news, not company earnings.

There are not many major earnings reports this week, so most new information will come from economic data.

And macro is never just about the numbers. It turns into a story about rates, growth, and what the Fed might do next. The same number can be seen as a sign of a soft landing or a warning of recession, depending on the context. That’s why the schedule matters.

So the calendar matters.

Key dates: Tuesday is the fulcrum

Monday, Dec 22

Some calendars show no major US releases. When there is little data, markets often trade based on the overall mood.

You’ll often see certain groups lead anyway, like semiconductors versus defensive stocks, or mega-cap growth versus cyclicals. It also depends on whether buyers act early or wait for Tuesday’s news.

Tuesday, Dec 23

This is the main event day. Releases expected include:

• Q3 GDP (delayed release)

• Durable goods orders

• Industrial production and capacity utilization

• Consumer confidence

Tuesday stands out because it is a full trading day and the last big chance for economic news before the market slows down. On days with early closings, a surprise in the morning can quickly lead to less trading and bigger price swings. Jobless claims data may come out at different times because of the holidays, which can add confusion. Friday is also a full trading day and can be a time for the market to catch up, especially if Tuesday’s news changed the outlook and Wednesday’s low volume made it hard to react. People often talk about seasonal trends in the last week of the year, but these are just tendencies, not rules.

This year has not followed the usual pattern of a strong year-end rally. Large tech stocks and AI-related volatility have made things less predictable. If you expected clear seasonal trends, this year has been different.

This context matters because it shapes what people expect, and those expectations often drive market moves.

Where the heat is: sectors that can actually move this week

1) AI infrastructure and semiconductors

AI remains the main long-term theme in the market, and expectations are high. Because of this, investor sentiment can change quickly, especially when trading is light during the holidays.

Names that tend to act like the tape’s AI dashboard:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Broadcom (AVGO)

• TSMC (TSM)

• AMD (AMD)

• ASML (ASML)

2) Industrials as “real economy” AI beneficiaries

Building data centers requires steel, electricity, equipment, and a lot of basic work.

Industrial companies can do well when businesses are spending on new projects, and their stocks often react directly to news about economic growth and production.

Watchlist-style bellwethers:

• Caterpillar (CAT)

• Eaton (ETN)

• Parker-Hannifin (PH)

3) Metals and mining as optionality

When it is unclear if the economy is speeding up or slowing down, investing in commodities can help manage that uncertainty.

• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) for copper sensitivity

• Newmont (NEM) for gold beta tied to rates and risk appetite

4) Healthcare as defensive leadership

Healthcare stocks are often picked by investors who want to own stocks but avoid too much exposure to the economy’s ups and downs.

• UnitedHealth (UNH)

• Eli Lilly (LLY)

The rotation backdrop: what big flows have been doing

By mid-December, fund flows showed investors were moving money into sectors that let them stay invested while avoiding big swings.

The headline pattern was: metals and mining, industrials, and healthcare leading sector inflows in the cited week, alongside a return to net inflows for US equity funds.

Simply put, big investors were adding exposure to both the real economy and defensive sectors, while also keeping some investments in commodities. This isn’t a prediction, just a way to build a balanced portfolio.

A holiday-week watchlist: catalysts and what breaks the narrative

This watchlist is short on purpose. These stocks are easy to trade, have clear reasons to move, and usually react in predictable ways to interest rates, economic news, and changes in investor focus.

AI and semis leaders

1) NVDA
What moves it: capex durability chatter, supply chain reads, anything that touches AI demand expectations.
What changes the story: a shift toward “AI profitability pace” anxiety that hits the whole complex.

2) AVGO
What moves it: custom AI silicon and networking positioning into year-end.
What changes the story: guidance, sensitivity, and narrative swings, amplified by thin liquidity.

3) TSM
What moves it: macro risk-on versus risk-off, read-through on advanced-node demand.
What changes the story: any hint that leading-edge capacity is digesting.

4) AMD
What moves it: rotation into AI challengers, high beta reactions to macro tone.
What changes the story: competitive narratives that can turn sharply on limited information.

5) ASML
What moves it: positioning for 2026 capex cycles.
What changes the story: geopolitics and export-control headlines.

Mega-cap quality growth

6) MSFT
What moves it: rates narrative, “AI monetisation” expectations, quality bid.
What changes the story: higher yields and multiple compression.

7) AMZN
What moves it: consumer confidence interpretation, rate expectations.
What changes the story: a renewed “consumer is rolling over” narrative.

8) GOOGL and META
What moves it: risk appetite and factor flows into quality growth.
What changes the story: broad-factor gapping in thin liquidity, with nothing to do with ads.

Rotation beneficiaries

9) CAT
What moves it: GDP and industrial production tone.
What changes the story: any growth scare print that shifts leadership defensively.

10) UNH
What moves it: defensive rotation if data disappoints.
What changes the story: policy headlines, which are always lurking in the background.

11) FCX
What moves it: a “soft landing” interpretation, copper optimism.
What changes the story: growth disappointment and fears of commodity demand.

12) NEM
What moves it: “rates lower for longer” interpretations.
What changes the story: a stronger data move, higher yields, and a stronger dollar.

The few things that can move everything at once

Tuesday’s macro cluster

This can swing rate expectations, risk appetite, and the market’s preference for growth versus defensives in a single session.

Holiday liquidity

Wednesday morning is the moment when small surprises can become big candles.

Year-end mechanics

Adjusting portfolios, rebalancing, tax planning, and changing investment styles can cause price moves that seem important but are mostly routine.

Risks that matter this week

• Thin liquidity and exaggerated moves, especially on Tuesday afternoon and all of Wednesday.

• Headline sensitivity in AI infrastructure, where sentiment can travel faster than fundamentals.

• Data compression risk, because multiple releases in one session raises whipsaw potential.

• Seasonality narratives can be early, late, or absent.

Here’s a simple plan for the week’s busy schedule:

• Monday: watch leadership and tone, because the calendar is light.

• Tuesday: treat it as the week’s main information window.

• Wednesday: note the early close and the liquidity squeeze.

• Friday: watch whether Tuesday’s message gets confirmed or faded in a regular session.