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TL;DR (9–5 Investor Summary)
This week, US stocks are seeing some ups and downs as more companies, not just the big AI names, are leading the market.
Friday’s February jobs report (March 6) is the key event to watch. It will influence interest rate expectations and could quickly shift which sectors are in favour.
The market isn’t turning away from AI, but investors are now looking more at companies with solid cash flow, strong profits, and those that support AI infrastructure, instead of just chasing hype.
A surprise in job or wage numbers could push yields up fast, which may hurt both defensive stocks that react to interest rates and growth stocks that need more time to deliver results.
Investors should watch how different parts of the market are performing, like small caps versus large caps and utilities versus tech. Pay attention to Monday’s PMI data, Friday’s jobs report, and updates from AVGO and COST.
Market Overview: Investors are shifting toward companies with tangible assets.
If you squint at the tape heading into early March, you can see two markets at once.
First, the main market shows the S&P 500 holding near the 6,900 mark after a bumpy February.
Second, in terms of positioning, investors are acting like it’s already 2026. They’re still interested in AI, but are more careful about high prices, especially with inflation and global events that could shake things up.
Here are two quick facts to set the stage:
This year, it’s not only the biggest companies driving the market. As of February 27, the Russell 2000 is up, but the Nasdaq is down.
March often brings a seasonal boost, but it’s not always steady. EquityClock says March averages a 1% gain, with a 64% chance of a gain. Still, rebalancing and quarter-end activity can make the first week feel shaky.
That’s why the overall market may seem steady, even though there’s a lot of movement happening within different sectors.
Macro calendar: PMIs on Monday, payrolls on Friday
This week has clear events at both the start and end:
Monday, March 2
ISM Manufacturing PMI lands on the first business day of the month (10:00 a.m. ET).
Wednesday, March 4
Broadcom (AVGO) will announce its fiscal Q1 results after the market closes.
ISM will release its services report on the third business day, and the Beige Book will offer more detailed insights.
Friday, March 6
Employment Situation for February 2026 (Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate) at 8:30 a.m. ET.
This is important because interest rate expectations are still unclear. If payrolls and wages come in lower than expected, utilities, real estate, and small caps often do well. If the report is strong, value stocks and financials usually benefit, while growth stocks might struggle.
For context, January’s jobs number was 130,000, beating the forecast of about 70,000. Most previews expect February’s number to be lower.
Key earnings catalysts: one AI check-in, one consumer pulse check
There are fewer major earnings reports this week, but two still stand out because they have a big impact on the market story.
Earnings Calendar for Week of 2 March 2026
Broadcom (AVGO): the “AI infrastructure reality check”
Broadcom reports on Wednesday, March 4. This matters because Broadcom is a major player in AI infrastructure, covering networking, connectivity, and custom chips. Investors want to see whether AI spending remains strong or whether tighter margins and more competition are emerging.
Read-through tickers: NVDA, TSM, MRVL, ANET.
Costco (COST): the “consumer resilience check”
Costco is set to report on Thursday, March 5. As a membership retailer, Costco offers a good look at customer traffic, spending habits, and the price sensitivity of shoppers.
Read-through tickers: WMT, TGT, the broader staples and discount ecosystem.
Put simply, AVGO will show if AI companies are still investing in hardware, while COST will reveal if consumers are still buying essentials.
Hot sectors and themes to watch
1) AI infrastructure and “picks and shovels”
In February, the market was hard on top AI companies if their results weren’t perfect, even though the overall AI trend remains strong.
Watchlist cluster: AVGO, NVDA, TSM, MRVL, ANET.
The main difference in stock performance is between:
Companies with clearer monetisation and near-term cash flow visibility, and
Companies where AI spending is clearly increasing, but investors are still debating whether that spending will pay off.
2) Utilities and grid: “AI needs power before it needs poetry”
When investors want AI exposure with lower risk, they often look at areas such as power, grid upgrades, and electrical equipment. This trend is growing as data centres become a real source of demand, not just a talking point.
Names to track: SO, NEE, ETN, plus XLU as the simple sector proxy.
3) Small caps and value: leadership broadening is the real headline
As of February 27, small-cap stocks are up this year, while the Nasdaq is down. This is different from recent years.
To track this trend, watch indicators of market strength and breadth instead of focusing on just one standout stock.
IWM or VB for small caps
SPY for large caps
and the spread between them.
4) Energy: geopolitics is still a macro input
Iran-related news was a clear factor in late February’s risk appetite and inflation worries. If oil prices jump, it can quickly affect rate expectations and which sectors lead.
Tickers to track: XOM, CVX, SLB, HAL, and XLE at the sector level.
Week-over-week institutional rotation: from story stocks to spreadsheet stocks
February’s trading showed that investor sentiment has clearly shifted.
The market didn’t just pull back from tech stocks. It also steered clear of uncertainty, especially with companies with high valuations, big spending, or affected by global events. This made investors more cautious in February and boosted interest in defensive sectors like utilities and staples.
So, it’s more accurate to see the market as moving between different types of risk, not just risk-on or risk-off. Investors still want growth, but they prefer companies that can clearly show results.
Top US stocks to watch this week
AI infrastructure and semis
AVGO: earnings and guidance tone, plus read-through to AI networking and custom silicon.
NVDA, TSM: bellwethers for AI sentiment and supply chain confidence.
MRVL, ANET: secondary beneficiaries whose moves often amplify the AVGO signal.
Utilities and grid
SO, NEE, ETN, XLU: watch rate sensitivity into payrolls and any “AI power demand” narrative follow-through.
Small caps and value proxies
IWM, VB: track leadership broadening versus SPY and QQQ.
Energy
XOM, CVX, SLB, HAL: headline beta to Middle East risk and crude.
Consumer bellwethers
COST: earnings as a consumer and pricing pulse.
WMT, TGT: potential sympathy moves depending on COST tone.
Risks to keep front of mind
Payrolls and wages: the Mar 6 report is the week’s main volatility trigger.
Inflation sensitivity: February’s weaker tape was explicitly tied to hotter inflation signals and shifting expectations for rate cuts.
Geopolitics: Iran-related headlines were part of the late-February market narrative and could spill over into oil and rates.
AI multiple compression: the bar for “good enough” among crowded AI leaders has been high, creating air pockets around earnings and guidance.
Disclaimer: This publication is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. It does not take into account your individual circumstances or objectives. Nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Capital is at risk.