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Summary for busy 9–5 Investors
What’s happening: Earnings drove sharp stock moves while indices stayed rangebound.
Why it matters: Profit growth, not policy headlines, remains the main market anchor.
What the market is missing: Rotation beneath the surface has been constructive.
Key risk to watch: A sharp shift in inflation or labour data that alters rate expectations.
Investor lens: Buy, Hold, Watch framework is based on sector exposure rather than index-level moves.
The Week in One Paragraph 🎯
US stocks had a choppy week, ending mixed. The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the Dow dropped 0.53%, and the Nasdaq was nearly unchanged, down 0.06%. Most of the big moves were driven by company earnings and policy news, not broader economic worries. President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair boosted the dollar and sparked a sharp selloff in precious metals, with silver posting one of its biggest weekly drops in years. Still, January finished higher across most indexes, especially small caps, as strong earnings helped offset headline risks. Under the surface, leadership shifted to energy, utilities, and staples, while technology and materials lagged.
Winners and Losers 🏆
Major Stocks
🟢 Winners
Meta Platforms rose 10% after a strong revenue forecast boosted confidence in its advertising and AI-driven engagement. $META ( ▼ 2.08% )
Verizon climbed 11.8% thanks to its best subscriber growth in years. $VZ ( ▲ 3.68% )
Tesla gained 3.3% after reporting better-than-expected earnings. $TSLA ( ▲ 0.04% )
Colgate-Palmolive rose 5.9% as steady demand for everyday products continued. $CL ( ▲ 1.37% )
🔴 Losers
Microsoft fell 10% even after beating estimates, as investors worried about slower growth in its cloud business. $MSFT ( ▼ 2.87% )
KLA Corporation dropped 15% after warning that its growth is slowing. $KLAC ( ▼ 3.89% )
Newmont lost 11% during the metals selloff. $NEM ( ▲ 3.8% )
Freeport-McMoRan fell 7.5% as copper prices and mining stocks came under pressure. $FCX ( ▲ 6.44% )
Sectors
Leading
Energy stocks rose about 3 to 4% as oil prices strengthened.
Utilities gained as growing data centre demand supported power infrastructure.
Consumer staples benefited as investors shifted to more defensive stocks.
Lagging
Basic materials dropped by more than 2% as metal prices fell sharply.
Health care stocks weakened because of earnings pressure.
Information technology stocks slipped as some investors took profits.
Three Key Highlights 🔊
Earnings are doing the heavy lifting
About three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat earnings expectations. The overall indexes barely moved, but individual stocks reacted strongly.
The Fed stayed cautious
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and reiterated its concern that inflation remains above target. Markets now expect fewer rate cuts through 2026.
The metals’ unwind was swift
After the Warsh nomination, the stronger dollar led to forced selling in gold and silver. The iShares Silver Trust dropped by over 28% this week, pulling mining stocks down with it.
Three Things Investors Overreacted To 🔥
Microsoft’s post-earnings drop
The selloff was mainly driven by slower cloud growth, even as revenue kept rising and AI investment increased.
Silver’s speculative unwind
The rapid drop was more about investor positioning than a sudden fall in industrial demand.
The Fed chair's headline
Markets saw the nomination as a big change, but long-term policy still depends on data and hasn’t changed yet.
One Chart Worth Seeing 📈
This chart shows possible S&P 500 paths for Q1 2026, highlighting expected volatility from midterm elections and AI trends. The baseline focuses on 2026-Q1 dividends, with a 'Midterm Miracle' boost later in the year.
Alternative Futures for S&P 500
What the Data Suggests for Long-Term Positioning 🧭
This week, markets were adjusting rather than panicking. Earnings growth is still the main support for stocks, and most forecasts expect double-digit EPS growth through 2026. Sentiment is optimistic, but volatility is low, suggesting investors are cautious rather than overly excited. The move toward energy, utilities, and staples shows investors are diversifying, not leaving risk assets altogether.
Next Week: What Is Worth Watching 🗓️
US ISM manufacturing data and global PMIs for signs of industrial momentum.
Central bank decisions from the RBA, BoE, and ECB are coming up, and their policy statements will likely matter more than any rate changes.
Earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon will give more insight into AI spending, advertising, and cloud demand.
US non-farm payrolls are also on watch; a weaker number could change rate expectations again.
Disclaimer: This publication is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. It does not take into account your individual circumstances or objectives. Nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Capital is at risk.
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